Analysis of the Development Prospects of the Medical Consumables Industry

Analysis of the Development Prospects of the Medical Consumables Industry

Medical consumables represent the most fundamental and frequently purchased segment of the healthcare service chain. They are also one of the largest‑volume, fastest‑turnover, and most supply‑chain‑stable subsectors within the global medical device industry. Unlike capital‑intensive products such as large imaging equipment, medical consumables are characterised by high turnover, inelastic demand, and continuous procurement, spanning the entire spectrum of diagnosis, surgery, nursing, and rehabilitation. They serve as the core physical carriers for the delivery of medical services. Driven by population ageing, technological innovation, and the deepening of volume‑based procurement (VBP) policies, the medical consumables industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale‑driven expansion to high‑quality development.

I. Sustained market expansion with strong growth momentum

The global medical consumables market maintains steady growth. According to industry monitoring data, the broad‑sense global market size reached approximately USD 612.4 billion in 2025, and is expected to grow to USD 658.0 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 7.5%. Data from the China Commercial Industry Research Institute show that the global medical consumables market has increased from USD 271.3 billion in 2021 to USD 331.2 billion in 2025, representing a CAGR of 5.1%, and is projected to reach USD 349.1 billion in 2026. Other research institutions forecast that the global market could reach USD 757.8 billion by 2030.

The Chinese market is particularly notable. In 2024, China's medical consumables market reached RMB 595.0 billion, accounting for 63.18% of the overall medical device market. Frost & Sullivan predicts that by 2030, China's total medical consumables market will climb to RMB 842.0 billion, with a CAGR of 6.0% from 2024 to 2030. Among them, the high‑value medical consumables market grew from RMB 151.0 billion in 2021 to RMB 195.7 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach RMB 209.5 billion in 2026; the low‑value medical consumables market was approximately RMB 142.3 billion in 2025. China's overall medical device market is expected to grow to RMB 1.66 trillion by 2030, with the medical consumables segment showing particularly prominent growth potential.

II. Rigid demand and technological innovation: twin engines of growth

Population ageing is the most fundamental driver of medical consumables market expansion. The global proportion of people aged 65 and above has exceeded 10.5%, directly driving high‑frequency procedures such as cataract surgery, cardiovascular interventions, and joint replacements to maintain a growth rate of about 12% between 2025 and 2026. Every additional surgical procedure translates into a simultaneous increase in the full set of consumables, from basic drapes and gloves to advanced interventional guidewires and sutures. At the same time, the rising prevalence of chronic diseases is profoundly reshaping the consumables consumption structure—products for long‑term management, such as insulin pen needles, glucose monitoring sensors, and bioactive dressings for chronic wound care, accounted for about 22% of incremental market share in 2026.

Technological innovation and product iteration are also driving industrial upgrading. The emergence of new products such as polyurethane indwelling needles, high‑pressure‑resistant PICC catheters, and needle‑free infusion connectors has significantly improved biocompatibility and operational efficiency. In 2026, the deep integration of minimally invasive surgery, neural engineering, and regenerative medicine imposes even more demanding performance requirements on medical polymer materials. Smart consumables that adapt to surgical scenarios, ensure sterility and safety, and are biodegradable are becoming the mainstream of R&D; digital production and intelligent quality control are now widely adopted, pushing the industry from traditional manufacturing towards high‑end precision manufacturing. As of June 2026, the cumulative number of innovative medical devices approved in China reached 431, with 40 new approvals in 2026 alone, setting a new record.

III. VBP reshapes the landscape: from "price war" to "value‑based selection"

Since the first national VBP for coronary stents in 2020, six rounds of procurement have been completed over the past six years, covering major categories including coronary stents, artificial joints, spinal implants, intraocular lenses, cochlear implants, drug‑coated balloons, and urological intervention devices. Average price reductions for mature categories range from 60% to 85%, with artificial joints seeing average reductions exceeding 80%. VBP has thoroughly broken the industry's long‑standing reliance on channel‑based marketing advantages and drastically compressed distribution premiums.

However, starting in 2026, VBP policy has taken a critical turn. The sixth round of procurement explicitly opposes "excessive internal price competition"—instead of simply selecting the lowest bid to calculate price differentials, it now uses 65% of the average bid price as the benchmark for price spread control. The policy orientation has shifted from a single‑minded pursuit of the lowest price to a balanced approach that considers product quality, technological innovation, and reasonable profit margins. The selection mechanism has evolved from pure price competition to a refined model that includes a "re‑entry" mechanism and a floor price guarantee, guiding companies towards differentiated competition through process improvement and service upgrades. The high‑value consumables segment has already emerged from the negative impact of policy and is now the most stable subsector within the medical device sector.

IV. Accelerated domestic substitution and overseas expansion create new growth space

Since the implementation of VBP for high‑value consumables, the process of domestic substitution has accelerated significantly. Imported brands, which once held over 90% market share in certain segments, have seen their dominance steadily eroded; domestic penetration rates now exceed 50% in areas such as coronary stents and orthopaedics. In neurointervention, as full categories including coils and intracranial stents have been included in VBP, the domestic market share has jumped from less than 10% to 26% in 2024. For drug‑coated balloon catheters, local companies' market share reached 35% in 2023, and VBP is expected to push overall domestic substitution rates above 60%. The domestic substitution rate for first‑time registrations of medical consumables in China has increased from 89% in 2019 to 95% in 2024.

At the same time, overseas expansion has become a significant growth engine. In 2025, medical consumables exports reached USD 30.047 billion, accounting for 50.34% of China's total medical device exports—a year‑on‑year increase of 3.24%. Leveraging strong production capacity flexibility and precision manufacturing capabilities, Chinese companies are securing more stable international positions through global production footprint optimisation.

V. Challenges and outlook

Despite the promising prospects, the medical consumables industry still faces several challenges. In the field of high‑end medical polymer materials, China remains heavily dependent on imports, with key materials such as thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) and medical‑grade polyether ether ketone (PEEK) subject to overseas supply constraints. The low‑value consumables market is highly competitive with low industry concentration, and some companies continue to face earnings pressure. In addition, external uncertainties such as overseas tariff friction could have a potential impact on exports.

Looking ahead, the medical consumables industry will continue to evolve under multiple driving forces. The demographic certainty of global population ageing provides a solid foundation of inelastic demand; the shift in VBP policy from "price‑cutting war" to "value‑based selection" fosters a healthier competitive environment; the deep integration of materials science, smart manufacturing, and clinical needs will continue to generate innovative products; and the twin engines of domestic substitution and global expansion will further broaden the industry's development space. As industry analysts have noted, the medical consumables industry has officially moved beyond extensive growth models and entered a new phase of high‑quality development characterised by technological breakthroughs, structural upgrades, and global incremental growth. With policy, technology, and market forces working in concert, the medical consumables industry is well positioned to maintain steady growth over the next decade, providing solid support for global healthcare.